OPEC said Thursday its annual World Oil Outlook that the United State shale oil boom could cut deeply into the group’s exports to the U.S.

The twelve members of OPEC — the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries — produce a third of the world’s oil.

The group said crude oil  from Canada and the U.S. will reach 4.9 million barrels a day within five years.

OPEC revised its forecast from last year, when it said North American production would be only 1.7 million barrels a day by 2018. The revised number of 4.9 mbp reflects huge production gains from new technologies, mainly related to hydraulic fracturing.

OPEC was founded in 1960 by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. Other current members are Qatar, Libya, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria , Nigeria, Ecuador and Angola.

The group said global demand for its crude will drop by a million barrels a day by 2018.

OPEC doesn’t expect global prices for crude to be impacted much by the shale boom, due to growing consumption and depletion rates.


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