The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case shows that recent growth in domestic crude oil and natural gas production is expected to continue for many years.

In 2016, crude oil production is expected to be close to the historical high of 9.6 million barrels per day, a record set in 1970.

The AEO2014 Reference case was released Monday.

It’s available here.

It contains baseline projections for U.S. energy production, consumption, and imports through 2040.

While domestic crude oil production is projected to level off and then slowly decline after 2020, natural gas production grows steadily, with a 56% increase between 2012 and 2040, when production reaches 37.6 trillion cubic feet.

The full AEO2014 report, to be released next spring, will also consider alternative resource and technology scenarios, some showing significantly higher long-term oil production than in the Reference case.


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