BP said in its latest long-term energy outlook that current market weakness could take several years to work through but demand will eventually be able to absorb growing output.
“The current weakness in the oil market, which stems in large part from strong growth in tight oil production in the US, is likely to take several years to work through,” BP said in its Energy Outlook 2035 report.
The report also said the U.S. will likely become energy self-sufficient sometime during the 2030s and will become a net energy exporter “over the next few years.”
U.S. shale production is likely to continue exerting pressure on OPEC producers in the near term but U.S. output growth will slow in the long term.
Curbed production growth from U.S. shale producers and increased global demand is expected to boost demand for OPEC oil to record highs by 2030.
U.S. shale output is projected rise by about 3 million bpd between 2013 and 2035 and is expected to stabilize in the coming years.
“The story is that over time the oil market will grow out of its current weakness, reflecting the call that tight oil does not continue to grow so rapidly and demand will grow sufficiently to absorb it,” BP chief economist Spencer Dale told Reuters.
OPEC’s market share will grow to 40 percent by 2035 back to the group’s average market share level over the last 20 years.
Global oil and liquids supplies are projected to grow by 20 million bpd by 2035 with North American producers accounting for the largest share of growth until 2020.
BP cut its 2035 oil demand growth down to 37 percent from its previous forecast of 41 percent as economic expansion in Asian economies shrinks to 2.5 percent between 2013 and 2035.