The International Energy Agency said Wednesday that it expects a swift but limited oil price correction as output in the United States continues to grow despite weak prices.
“The market rebalancing will likely occur relatively swiftly but will be comparatively limited in scope,” the IEA said.
In its Medium Term Oil Market report the IEA said prices are likely to stabilize below the highs seen over the past three years.
The agency also said the recent fall in prices will curb but not stop U.S. production growth.
“The price correction will cause the North American supply ‘party’ to mark a pause; it will not bring it to an end,” the IEA said.
U.S. supply growth is expected to slow substantially in the short term but is projected to pick up again in the medium term, Reuters said.
The IEA projects U.S. production will grow to 5.2 million barrels per day by 2020.
The agency also expects global oil inventories to hit record highs before capital expenditure cuts begin to shrink supplies, Reuters said.
Russia is likely to be the hardest hit by plummeting oil prices, the report warned.
“Russia, facing a perfect storm of collapsing prices, international sanctions and currency depreciation, will likely emerge as the industry’s top loser,” the IEA said.
Global demand growth is expected to rise to 1.13 million bpd in 2016 from 910,000 bpd this year.
However, the agency said weak prices will only have a marginal impact on demand growth for the next ten years.
“Despite expectations of tightening balances by end-2015, downward market pressures may not have run their course just yet,” the IEA said.