Global energy demand is expected to grow by about 25 percent by 2040, according to a recently published report from ExxonMobil.
The report projects that energy demand in the coming decades will be driven by China, India and other non-OECD countries while demand and emissions in the United States, Europe and other OECD nations are expected to decline, even as economic output grows.
“This is a significant increase, but would have been far higher (exceeding 110 percent) if we did not foresee steep improvements in energy efficiency across all demand sectors,” the report said.
Exxon expects China and India to account for almost half of projected global demand growth to 2040 while Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Thailand and Indonesia will account for about 30 percent of projected demand growth.
The report forecasts that global liquids output will rise to 112 million barrels a day in 2040, up from 93 million barrels per day in 2014, enough output to meet projected demand growth.
Natural gas liquid production is expected to expand “significantly” through 2040, with deepwater natural gas liquid production forecast to grow by about 70 percent from 2014 to 2040.
Oil is expected to remain the top energy source in the world to 2040, but the report said that there will be a “marked shift toward cleaner fuels, particularly natural gas.”
Unconventional oil and gas are projected to meet about one-fifth of the world’s energy needs by 2040.
“We expect that oil, natural gas and coal – the three fuels that together built the modern economy – will continue to meet almost 80 percent of the world’s energy needs through 2040,” the report said.
Global demand for oil and other liquids is projected to grow by about 20 percent from 2014 to 2040 while demand for natural gas is poised to rise by 50 percent during the same period.
“We expect 40 percent of the projected growth in global energy demand from 2014 to 2040 will be met by natural gas,” the report said.
Nuclear and renewable energy sources are likely to account for nearly 40 percent of global energy demand growth 2014 to 2040.
The majority of oil and gas exports through 2040 will likely go to the Asia Pacific region, where demand will outstrip local production growth.
North America is now on track become a net exporter around 2020 and the United States is expected to become a net liquids exporter around 2025, the report said.
Flat production growth and growing demand in the Asia Pacific region will boost that region’s net imports by more than 50 percent between 2014 and 2040.
“Europe is likely to remain the second-largest oil importing region, with imports meeting 75 percent of demand by 2040,” the report said.
Oil exports from the Middle East should continue to grow as production outpaces demand in the region, allowing the Middle East to remain the largest exporting region in the world.