A new long-term energy outlook published by BP found that U.S. shale oil output is expected to double by 2035.
BP now expects U.S. tight oil production to plateau around the 8 million barrel per day mark in the 2030s and account for nearly 40 percent of total U.S. oil production.
In 2013, BP had projected that shale oil production would hit 3.6 million barrels per day by 2030, but production skyrocketed past that level in 2014.
However, overall North American and global tight oil production growth is expected to slow in the coming decade.
North American tight oil production is expected to grow by 2.5 million bpd per year between 2015 and 2025, and by just 1 million bpd per year between 2025 and 2035, down from an annual growth rate of 4.5 million bpd seen during the past 10 years.
BP said North American tight oil growth will primarily be constrained by the size of the resource base over the next 20 years.
The North American production growth slowdown is expected to be partially offset by a boost in global tight oil production.
From 2025 to 2035, nearly half of tight oil production growth, or about 900,000 bpd, is forecast to come from outside of North America.
Global tight oil production is expected to increases by 5.7 million bpd between 2014 and 2035 to around 10 million bpd in 2035.
“Despite this sizeable growth, tight oil accounts for less than 10 percent of all liquids production in 2035,” the report said.
U.S. shale gas production is now expected to grow by about 4 percent per year from 2014 to 2035.
At that growth rate, U.S. shale gas will account for about 75 percent of total U.S. gas production and nearly 20 percent of global gas output in 2035, BP said.
Global shale gas production is forecast to grow by 5.6 percent per year between 2014 to 2035, a level that is “well in excess of the growth of total gas production,” according to the report.
Thanks to growing production, shale gas will account for about 24 percent of global gas production by 2035, up from 11 percent in 2014.
“As with the past 10 years, the growth of shale gas supply is dominated by North American production, which accounts for around two-thirds of the increase in global shale gas supplies,” BP said.
Shale gas production outside of North America is also expected to expand over the next two decades, with shale gas production in China forecast to reach 13 billion cubic feet per day in 2035.